Saturday, April 17, 2004

Once again, an Andrew Black political forecast proves to be inaccurate. In fact, a good way of making money would probably be to bet against my predictions.

Despite my confident assertion that the DA-IFP coalition would secure enough votes to win Kwa Zulu-Natal it turns out that not only did they not win enough votes but that the ANC is in a position to rule KZN without help from the IFP, should it choose to do so. The final tally in the KZN race is as follows:

ANC (African National Congress)- 46.98%
IFP (Inkatha Freedom Party)- 36.82%
DA (Democratic Alliance) - 8.35%
MF (Minority Front) - 2.61%
ACDP (African Christian Democratic Party) - 1.78%
UDM (United Democratic Movement) - 0.75%
NNP (New National Party) - 0.52%
ID (Independent Democrats) - 0.49%

No matter how many other parties the DA-IFP bring on board, there is no way that they can get the 50 percent necessary to rule. The ANC, and its partner the NNP, on the other hand could, along with the help of the Minority Front (with whom the ANC had an alliance in the last government), get 50.11 percent and therefore form a goverment. This presumes that the divying up of the seats amongst those parties that have secured very small shares of the vote allows the NNP to get at least one seat (are there any experts out there who can help me on this?). Nevertheless, I'd be very surprised if the ANC chooses to rule without the help of the IFP (there's another prediction for you). I think everybody acknowledges that for the sake of stability in the province it is important to have the IFP on board. I'm sure that the ANC won't be shy about pointing out to the IFP who the new top dogs are though, and I'm willing to bet (another prediction) that the IFP will have to cede the provincial premiership to the ANC. If recent press reports are to be believed, Mbeki is readying Jacob Zuma for the role. Alas, the DA are likely to be left out in the cold.

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