Friday, March 12, 2004

M&G is speculating about who will lead the provinces after the elections. They claim that rumours within the ANC are suggesting that Jacob Zuma will be deployed to KZN should the ANC win there. Can we presume from this that Zuma is now out of the picture as a possible successor to Mbeki? It is not beyond the realms of possibility that Zuma could spend a term as provincial leader before returning in 2009 to take the reins from Mbeki, but under the circumstances it would represent a peculiar move on the ANC's part. In a similar vein Mbhazima Shilowa is thought likely to remain premier of Gauteng. I have no objection to this, he's been one of the ANC's most successful provincial leaders and is just the sort of dynamic figure that Gauteng needs. That said, I've started to ponder about the desirability of Shilowa succeeding Mbeki and for the most part I think he would be a good thing. Again the move from provincial leader to president is not impossible, but it would not be a good omen for Shilowa if Mbeki intends to keep him Gauteng.

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