Thursday, March 11, 2004

Laurence thinks that the lack of active campaigning by the IFP in Gauteng is evidence of, 'the DA / IFP election strategy at work'. He goes on to say that:

'In the past, the DA have proven to be fairly strong in Gauteng, so it makes sense for the IFP to get out of the way and let the DA rack up as many votes as possible. IFP support in Gauteng is probably transferable to the DA anyway, so they're unlikely to lose any votes as a result.'

I'm not so certain though. I think the simpler, and more likely explanation, is that the IFP has slowly given up on its aspiration of becoming a national party and is now focused, almost exclusively, on KZN. As evidence I cite the increasing levels of political violence in the province and the increasingly chauvinistic rhetoric coming out of IFP headquarters. What this means, of course, is that if they fail to win KZN they're finished. A regional party without a regional support base has no future. Which is why things are so tense now in KZN.

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